AP Reports that Mahmoud Komati, deputy chief of the Hezbollah's political arm, stated that the group was surprised by Israel’s response to its killing and kidnapping of Israeli soldiers that started the current fighting in Lebanon. Basically they expected a repeat of previous incidents:
He said Hezbollah had expected ``the usual, limited response'' from Israel after the two soldiers were seized by guerrillas on Israel's side of the border on July 12. In the past, he said, Israeli responses to Hezbollah actions included sending commandos into Lebanon, seizing Hezbollah officials and briefly targeting specific strongholds in southern Lebanon. Komati said his group had anticipated negotiations to swap the Israeli soldiers for three Lebanese held in Israeli jails, with Germany acting as a mediator as it has in past prisoner exchanges.
Apparently Hezbollah didn’t note that Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert doesn’t have Ariel Sharon’s political and historical baggage that constrained him from acting against Lebanon, nor did they realize that an unprovoked attack across an international boundary opened it to worldwide condemnation that at least initially provided Israel with a green light for its actions.